Skip to main content
Group of people rafting on a river surrounded by trees and mountains.

The Pagosa Outside River Desk

Pagosa Springs River Conditions & Forecast

Check current San Juan River conditions in Pagosa Springs: live flow, water temperature, locally developed river forecasts, watershed snowpack, available river activities and honest local knowledge from the PO River Crew.

Connecting to official river data...

Current measurements, the short-term forecast and the seasonal outlook tell three related—but different—parts of the river story.

SECTION 1

Current Pagosa River Conditions

The latest San Juan River flow, water temperature, local weather and activity-specific ranges.

-- CFS
0 30 90 180 300 400 600 800 1.5K 2.4K 3.6K+
WHITEWATER TUBING 30–400 CFS Waiting for gauge SHALLOW 30–90 · GOOD 90–250 · ROWDY 300–400
GUIDED RAFTING 300+ CFS Waiting for gauge SPLASH 300 · MESA 600 · WEST FORK 800 CFS

The 300–400 CFS crossover can support spring rafting or warm-weather tubing. Temperature, debris and the PO River Crew determine the daily fit.

TOO LOW LOW END GOOD STRONGER HIGH · CAUTION HIGHEST · CREW CALL
RIVER DESK OBSERVATION

Loading river conditions

Checking trend

Connecting to the Pagosa Springs gauge and today’s weather.

Current flow-- CFS
24-hour average-- CFS
Historical average-- CFS
24-hour change--

USGS Pagosa Springs flow gauge Recent government readings are provisional.

PAGOSA TODAY Loading today’s forecast

Daily high, overnight low and rain chance from the National Weather Service.

VIEW PAGOSA FORECAST ↗
HEADWATERS · 7 DAYS Loading mountain weather

Headwater temperatures help explain snowmelt timing in spring.

VIEW HEADWATER FORECAST ↗
TRIP-SPECIFIC RIVER GAUGES

Five river activities. One live reading.

Each gauge focuses on the flow range that matters for that trip, then connects directly to the product page for current availability.

RAFTINGTRIP-SPECIFIC GAUGE

Splash & Dash

--CFS
AWAITING GAUGE
GENERAL MINIMUM300 CFS

A streamlined quarter-day with a scenic warm-up, splashy downtown whitewater, included river gear and complimentary photos.

CHECK AVAILABILITY
RAFTINGTRIP-SPECIFIC GAUGE

Mesa Canyon

--CFS
AWAITING GAUGE
GENERAL MINIMUM600 CFS

Our signature half-day combines remote canyon scenery, family-friendly whitewater, premium river gear and complimentary photos.

CHECK AVAILABILITY
RAFTINGTRIP-SPECIFIC GAUGE

West Fork

--CFS
AWAITING GAUGE
GENERAL MINIMUM800 CFS

Our premier half-day pairs technical Class III–III+ whitewater with exclusive access and an intimate San Juan Mountains experience.

CHECK AVAILABILITY
TUBINGTRIP-SPECIFIC GAUGE

Deluxe Tubing

--CFS
AWAITING GAUGE
GENERAL FLOW RANGE30–400 CFS

A scheduled-shuttle, self-guided trip with professional tubes, PFDs, river shoes, lockers and complimentary photos.

CHECK AVAILABILITY
TUBINGTRIP-SPECIFIC GAUGE

DIY Tube Rentals

--CFS
AWAITING GAUGE
GENERAL FLOW RANGE30–400 CFS

Flexible three-hour or full-day tube rentals for the walk-down route, with professional equipment and local river advice.

CHECK AVAILABILITY

Flow is one part of the operating decision. Water temperature, weather, debris, access and the PO River Crew also shape the daily trip lineup. Use the product calendars for current availability.

SECTION 2

Short-Term River Forecast & Observations

What has changed, what the official forecast shows and what the next weather pattern is likely to do.

OBSERVED + FORECAST

The river in motion

Seven days of measured flow lead into the official seven-day PSPC2 forecast and a widening, weather-aware outlook through day 10.

Seven days of observed San Juan River flow and a ten-day outlook in Pagosa Springs

Loading the seven-day hydrograph...

OBSERVED OFFICIAL FORECAST · THROUGH DAY 7 WEATHER-AWARE RANGE · DAY 8–10 HISTORICAL AVERAGE

The green dashed line follows the official seven-day PSPC2 forecast when available. The orange range extends days 8–10 using recent movement, snowpack when present, and forecast precipitation at Pagosa and in the headwaters.

RIVER DESK 7–10 DAY OUTLOOK

Building the short-term outlook

-- CFS

Combining the official river forecast, recent movement, local weather and—during runoff—remaining mountain snow.

UPDATING FORECAST INPUTS VIEW OFFICIAL PSPC2 FORECAST ↗

Loading the daily temperature and precipitation forecast…

SECTION 3

Pagosa River Forecast & Water-Year Outlook

Seasonally focused river intelligence: winter snow storage, spring peak potential, the rafting-to-tubing transition, summer rain and the completed water year.

HOW THE RIVER SEASON IS SHAPING UP

Reading the headwaters

Snowpack, runoff timing and long-range weather signals are loading.

RAFTING WINDOWEstimated dates loading
TUBING WINDOWEstimated dates loading

Season windows are broad River Desk estimates; actual trip availability follows the daily river reading and operating conditions.

WATER-YEAR STORY

Building the seasonal picture

The River Desk changes emphasis as mountain snow becomes runoff, native flow and the completed water-year record.

Pagosa River water-year outlook

Loading the water-year story…

CURRENT WATER YEAR DAILY AVERAGE SEASONAL ESTIMATE

Official measurements remain visually separate from River Desk seasonal interpretation.

SAN JUAN HEADWATERS

Water stored in the snow

Upper San Juan and Wolf Creek Summit show how much water is held in the mountain snowpack.

OFFICIAL SEASONAL RUNOFF FORECAST CBRFC water-supply outlook

Official monthly guidance is published during the winter and spring runoff forecast season.

VIEW CBRFC OUTLOOK ↗
NOAA 3-MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK Official seasonal maps

Temperature and precipitation signals add broad context—not a day-by-day river prediction.

VIEW LATEST NOAA OUTLOOK ↗
LOCAL MOUNTAIN PERSPECTIVEJosh Kurz’s seasonal outlook

Field observations, snowfield patterns and thoughtful local analysis from the South San Juans.

READ SOUTH SAN JUANS ↗
PAGOSA OUTSIDE · EXPERIMENTAL RIVER FORECASTING LAB BUILD 0.8.0 · AUG 23, 2026

Black Hat Hydrology Lab

Questionable hats. Serious data. Experimental forecasts.

Pagosa's public river-forecast experiment mixes 25 years of local flow and headwater snow history with live gauge readings, forecast weather and tested NOAA climate outlooks. It estimates flow 30–90 days ahead, watches seasonal operating shifts and keeps score on eight fixed calls.

This is experimental forecasting and should not be relied on for anything other than entertainment. Use the River Desk and official sources for current conditions and published forecasts.

Frequently asked questions

Pagosa Outside River Desk FAQ's

The live flow comes from the USGS San Juan River gauge in Pagosa Springs. Recent government readings are provisional and carry their original timestamp.

The gauge supplies the default recommendation. The current PO River Crew operating status is what determines which activities appear as running.

Small changes matter greatly at tubing levels, while spring rafting is easier to understand in hundreds of CFS. The two-part scale makes both readable on one dial.

River readings refresh hourly, weather every three hours and SNOTEL snowpack daily. If a feed pauses, the last successful reading stays visible with its timestamp

The temperature reading comes from the USGS San Juan River below CR 119 station. The River Desk shows the latest reading in Fahrenheit and Celsius along with the recent daily range.

No. The chart labels the official National Weather Service forecast separately from measured USGS observations. Automated text summarizes those published inputs without inventing a peak flow or date

The Current Conditions section above shows the latest measured river flow, 24-hour trend, historical average and water temperature. It also places the current reading within Pagosa’s general rafting and tubing ranges. These readings update automatically from official government gauges, while weather, debris, water temperature and changing river features can also influence the day’s conditions and activity availability.

The River Desk’s short-term outlook provides the most likely flow range for the next seven to ten days. It combines the official Colorado Basin River Forecast Center forecast with recent river movement and the National Weather Service forecast. During May and June, remaining mountain snow and headwater temperatures are also considered. During July and August, rainfall becomes the more important source of potential river changes. The result is a likely range rather than a guaranteed daily flow.

Many people enjoy Pagosa Springs tubing between approximately 90 and 180 CFS. Flows from 30 to 90 CFS are lower and shallower, while the 180s through the upper 200s produce a faster, livelier trip. Tubing may continue between 300 and 400 CFS during hot summer weather, but that is rowdy high-water tubing and daily operating decisions depend on water temperature and river conditions. Above approximately 400 CFS, the river generally shifts toward rafting.

Different Pagosa Springs rafting trips require different amounts of water. Splash & Dash can sometimes operate down to 300 CFS, Mesa Canyon generally needs at least 600 CFS and the West Fork requires approximately 800 CFS. These are general flow guidelines rather than automatic operating rules. Water temperature, debris, river access and current channel conditions also factor into the Pagosa Outside River Crew’s decisions.

Learn more about Splash & Dash, Mesa Canyon and the West Fork.

Pagosa Springs rafting season usually runs during May and June, when melting mountain snow supplies the San Juan River. Peak runoff often occurs from mid-May into early June, followed by gradually decreasing flows. The exact timing changes every year based on winter snowpack, spring temperatures and precipitation. A lower-snow year may produce an earlier, shorter rafting season followed by an earlier transition into tubing.

Pagosa Springs tubing usually begins when spring runoff drops consistently below 400 CFS. This often happens in late June or early July, although warm weather and a lower snowpack can move the transition earlier. Tubing commonly continues through July and August, with summer monsoons often producing increases in flow. The Current Conditions section above provides the best indication of where the river sits within the tubing range.

Yes. As flows decrease, the river becomes shallower and more rocks appear. Lower-water tubing can include slower sections, careful route-finding and occasional walking. Pagosa Outside may pause its shuttled Deluxe Tubing Trip when the river becomes too low for the complete route, while DIY Tube Rentals may still work for the shorter downtown walk-down route. Current availability is shown on each product calendar.

The live water-temperature reading appears in the Current Conditions section above. The San Juan is generally coldest during spring snowmelt and gradually warms through the summer. Water temperature can also change noticeably during the day, especially when flows are low. The River Desk uses the USGS temperature station near County Road 119, while actual temperatures can vary somewhat between the headwaters, downtown Pagosa Springs and downstream locations.

CFS means cubic feet per second. It measures how much water passes the gauge every second. One CFS equals approximately 7.5 gallons per second, so a reading of 250 CFS represents roughly 1,870 gallons moving past the gauge each second. CFS describes water volume, but it does not tell the entire river story. Channel shape, gradient, water temperature and recent river changes all affect what a particular flow feels like.

Mountain snowpack stores the water that produces most of Pagosa’s spring runoff. A higher percentage of normal snowpack generally supports a stronger or longer rafting season. A lower-snow year often concentrates rafting flows into a shorter spring window, but it can also produce an earlier and potentially longer tubing season. Spring temperatures determine how quickly the stored snow reaches the river, which is why the River Desk tracks both headwater snow and mountain weather.

Summer rain can create temporary rises in the San Juan River, but the location and coverage of the storm matter. A widespread storm over the East Fork, West Fork and other headwater drainages can affect the Pagosa gauge more than a short cloudburst directly over town. These increases may arrive several hours after the rain and can fade quickly. That is why the River Desk considers recent gauge movement and the broader weather forecast rather than relying only on the chance of rain in downtown Pagosa.

The USGS gauge measures water that has already reached Pagosa Springs. The official river forecast estimates what may arrive later based on weather, upstream conditions and hydrologic models. Forecast values can change as new observations become available, particularly during rapid snowmelt or summer thunderstorms. The River Desk keeps measured flow and forecast flow visually separate so visitors can distinguish what the river is doing now from what it may do next.